Team assesments

Brawn (1st: 36 points): Outdone today, but this was largely due to a key characteristic of their car. It is very gentle with tyres, which means that in the wet, it struggles to keep them warm enough. This will provide them with an advantage in changeable conditions (such as a track drying out) and when it is very hot (or more generally, when the super-soft is in use). They still look good for the title, probably both titles. Prediction: CHAMPIONS
Red Bull (2nd: 19.5): Clearly the best car to have in the wet. When conditions were at or near their worst, the Red Bull was 2s per lap faster than anyone else (even Webber, whose visibility wasn't great behind his teammate). Also quick in the dry, which is usually more important for championships, but not as quick as Brawn. I'm unconvinced that they'll make the same progress as others with the rear diffuser, due to their exisiting system not being as suited to its introduction. Prediction: 2nd
Toyota (3rd: 18.5): A poor weekend for them, but Glock showed his strength in the wet, fighting throuhg to 7th. Will certainly win at some point this year, but may get overtaken by the more traditionally leading teams, later in the season. Prediction: 5th
McLaren (4th: 8): Crisis? What crisis? Today's performance will ease the pressure on the team, ahead of their FIA summons next week. Unless the FIA throw the book at them (which would be ridiculous, but not out of character) they are well placed to improve further. Strong development team can probably get them fighting for wins in the second half of the season. Prediction: 3rd
BMW (5th: 4): Should have had a podium in Melbourne, had a podium in Sepang and yet they were nowhere to be seen here in China. Heidfeld's strategy probably didn't help him out - his wet tyres were thoroughly worn out by the end of the race, having gone on during the safety car period at 1/3 distance. Will need to improve, and aren't due to release their new diffuser for a while, yet. Prediction: 6th
Renault (6th: 4): Alonso looked good this weekend, but Piquet was a disaster waiting to happen in the race. Admittedly he didn't have the upgrades that were on Fernando's car, but he must improve, a lot, quickly to keep his seat for the remainder of the season. The team have upgrades coming over the next few races, which should bring them into the fight for podiums. Prediction: 4th
Toro Rosso (7th: 4): Buemi keeps picking up points through great Sunday performances. However, as the other teams improve, that will become harder and harder. Buemi might manage 10 points this season, but Bourdais won't. Prediction: 9th
Williams (8th: 3.5): Having the second or third fastest car at the opening rounds and scoring only 3.5 points shows that it is what you achieve on the day that counts. Now that their rivals will be catching them up, they will struggle to improve on 8th in the table. Nakajima (like Piquet and the Force Indias) has yet to reach the top 8 in any qualifying session (Q1, Q2 or Q3) or the fastest lap rankings, or score a point in a race. His job will come under pressure mid-season, if that doesn't change. Prediction: 8th
Force India (9th: 0): A great shame for Sutil, that he couldn't bring home that 6th place. He'll have other chances, but not many. Unless of course, their Bahrain upgrade is as good as hoped. The team WILL score points this year, but not many and not enough to come 9th. Prediction: 10th
Ferrari (10th: 0): Another weekend and yet again they leave empty hooved. Massa's pace was strong, but reliability is clearly a problem, even without KERS. Raikkonen was fairly anonymous, after his second stop, ending the race 10th. They will come good eventually, but it will amount to damage limitation for the season. Their 2010 cars will carry numbers in double figures. Prediction: 7th

Prediction assesment

Well the BBC made the best weather prediction. I hadn't believed the rain forecast (assuming it to be an outside chance). The Red Bull is the best car in the wet, that much was clear in Malaysia. The rain, starting under the safety car and the re-emergence of the same on lap 18 scuppered all predictions. It meant that James Allen's predictions were closer to the mark (all about 1-2 laps later than mine) and the BBC's further away (about 2 laps earlier). Perhaps in Bahrain we can get an idea whose methodolgy works best.

My prediction results (same rules as always, 1pt if named driver finishes in top 8, extra point if it is in position predicted):
Thursday: 6/16 (5 drivers, Jenson correctly placed 3rd)
Friday: 6/16 (6 drivers, none in the right place)
Saturday: 8/16 (5 drivers, Webber, Button and Hamilton all correctly placed).
In total I listed 13 different drivers, 6 of whom scored points and 3 in the positions I gave. Shows how predictable this sport is, I suppose. Yesterday's prediction was the best I've managed all year.

Driver reports

How did everyone's race go?
The field started behind a safety car, due to treacherous conditions at the start. The safety car came in after 8 laps, ruining some strategies. The track never dried out, although time did drop from 1min 59s to 1min53s at one point. Congratulations to the 16 drivers who finished, judging by the amount of spins, aquaplaning was a major problem. Any one of them could have been taken out entirely, throuhg no fault of their own, at more or less any point.

Here are my reports, in race finish order:
Vettel - Faultless performance. Helped by good visibility, more or less throughout. Also had the best car in the conditions (this was also apparent in Malaysia where they could almost match Glock on the wrong tyres). Congratulations, thoroughly deserved.
Webber - No hard luck story, merely the second best driver/car on the day. Good fight with Jenson in the middle of the race.
Button - Disadvantaged by the safety car, coming out a few laps before he would have stopped anyway. Outpaced his teammate for 3 periods - overtaking him early on, when Rubens was stuck in traffic and at the end when on newer tyres.
Barrichello - Shouldn't have let Button slip past him. Was hugely disadvantaged by safety car, as he slipped behind Raikkonen, Hamilton and a couple of others - the poor visibility and traffic cost him 2secs a lap. Unlucky that conditions deteriorated after he'd kept his existing wet tyres on (had conditions continued improving he'd have been on Jenson's tail, not having the McLarens on his).
Kovaleinen - Finished a lap, finished a race, beat his world champion teammate. A fairly anonymous race, without errors. Strategy worked well for him, staying out very long and 1 stopping.
Hamilton - Overtook many, many cars, but fell off the road far too often. Still, realisitically he wasn't going to get a much better result.
Glock - Started from pit-lane, enabling him to change strategy. Took his only pit stop after damaging his front wing, but had the pace to fight through to 7th. Well done.
Buemi - It seems that Toro Rosso have got another star-in-the-making. Was running in the top 4 at times, due to strategy. Only mistake came where he didn't see Vettel slowing down as the SC came out. A mistake similar to that made by Vettel in Fuji '07.
Alonso - Made a mistake stopping early under the safety car. He probably had enoguh fuel for 3 racing laps. Went from last and 20s behind Vettel to last and 37s behind within 3 laps of restart - had he waited, he oculd have emerged from the pits mid-pack, and might well have scored points.
Raikkonen - Another race without points for Ferrari. What's worse is that he just wasn't quick enough in the conditions (much like Melbourne in the dry).
Bourdais - Overshadowed by his teammate, but racy at times. I wasn't paying him much attention, but I think he got a little unlucky on strategy calls, but only really deserved 11th.
Heidfeld - One stopped, but too early. His car was fuelled as long as Hamilton, and had he followed McLaren's strategy he wouldn't have faded from 9th to 12th (despite Sutil dropping out) at the end on worn out wet tyres.
Kubica - Anonymous except for the moment where he climbed over the back of a slow moving Trulli. This brought out the safety car, minimising his losses. Car not quick enough, in short.
Fisichella - Overshadowed by his much younger teammate. An anonymous race at the back of the pack - perhaps his car wasn't well balanced on fuel/wet tyres.
Rosberg - Disappointing. Made the same mistake as Alonso, without having the excuse of being as short-fuelled. Never got far through the traffic before risking intermediates as conditions reached their best with 16 laps to go. Rain returned which forced him to change back 8 laps later.
Piquet - Not as fast as his team-mate, but he didn't have the upgrades to the car. Must do better soon, though.
Sutil - Great race, until his car escaped him near the end. 6th place would have been a great reward for his strong wet-weather performances over the past 2 years. He'll mange it next time.
Nakajima - Terrible. Eventually retired towards the end after leaving the track several times, and getting overtaken by his teammate.
Massa - Was on the pace with the McLaren until his car gave up the ghost under the safety car. Shame for Ferrari, as they might have got some points.
Trulli - Worst driver of the day. He had already been overtaken by his teammate (who started from the pits, whilst Trulli started 6th) before Kubica mounted the back of his car. Nothing he could do, thereafter.

Predictions for the race

Unaccountably, I omitted my post-qualifying predictions from the previous post.

Here goes:

Win: Rubens (outqualified Jenson with more fuel, started better in Malaysia)
2nd: Webber (that Red Bull is quick, even if, fuel adjusted the Brawns were faster in Q3)
3rd: Button (May struggle in the early laps, unless he gets a good start)
4th: Trulli (Mustn't forget those Toyotas, they've been quick in every race)
5th: Alonso (His short 1st stint might help him to a top 5 finish)
6th: Hamilton (Has gained places at every race so far, and more than most/KERS will help)
7th: Heidfeld (Heavily fuelled, may benefit from rain, or else short soft-tyre stint/KERS will help)
8th: Glock (Might just fight his way through the field, as he did in Melbourne)

Hon mensh: Vettel (limited running imply reliability issues), Rosberg (anonymous in qualy, but still has a quick car), Kovaleinen (KERS will help, might last longer than a lap).

China GP grid and post-qualy views

The grid listed below includes the estimated laps worth of fuel, with which the cars will start. Williams estimate consumption of 2.55kg/5km, which is the equivalent of 2.78kg/lap. Naturally, some excess weight is left in (drivers lose eight during a race, cars need fuel to get to grid and do formation lap). For this reason the numbers aren't a simple "car weight-minimum allowable/fuel consumption" function. I'll assess my accuracy against the BBC and James Allen after the race tomorrow.

The grid:
Front row: Vettel (11-12) Alonso (9)
2nd row: Webber (12-13) Barrichello (17-18)
3rd row: Button (17) Trulli (19)
4th row: Rosberg (14) Raikkonen (22)
5th row: Hamilton (24) Buemi (22)
6th row: Heidfeld (24) Kovaleinen (30-31)
7th row: Massa (28) Nakajima (25-26)
8th row: Bourdais (28) Piquet (31)
9th row: Kubica (17) Sutil (13)
10th row: Glock (14) Fisichella (24)

KERS cars in bold, Glock penalised 5 places for gearbox change.
Also note that Piquet does not have the same car upgrades as Alonso, and that Alonso's front row spot is entirely due to having the lightest fuel load.

Tyre choice: In qualifying many drivers were getting a better second lap time than first out of the super-soft tyres, so they shouldn't be as bad as they were in Melbourne. However, a 40%-40%-20% two-stop strategy may still prove popular. That would leave 22-24 lap stints on medium tyres and 10-12 laps on super softs. By this reckoning Vettel, Alonso, Webber, Rosberg, Sutil and Glock are all likely to start on softs.
Barrichello, Button, Trulli and Kubica are on neither here-nor-there tyre strategies, in that their fuel loads should take them to about 1/3 distance, which isn't an obvious level for either tyre. Of course, rain may interfere.

Of the 5 forecasts I viewed (the first five from google) all show a fair chance of rain (though probabilities, where offered, vary from 30% to 90%, though these don't specifically relate to the race period. The BBC predicts heavy rain, but doesn't offer hourly forecasts for non-UK cities.

If it rains mid race, advantage to those about to stop anyway, and to those who have yet to use the softer tyres (as they would no longer have to). If the race starts wet, then advanatage to those who cope best with a drying track (if it dries at all) through timing of stops and car balance. Fuel consumption is slightly less in the wet, so that may affect stop times (as would any early safety car).

China - Friday preview

Friday practise comes and goes, and things appear a little clearer. Of course, Friday times are usually misleading, so caveat lector. Team-by-team updates below:

Brawn: (First session (FP1): P2&P3, Second session (FP2): P1&3) Unusually strong Friday performance from the team. This was put down (partly) to the fact that their car looks after the super-soft tyre best (Jenson put in the fastest times in the final sector). Look exceedingly strong for this weekend.

Toyota: (FP1: 6&8, FP2: 6&8): There or thereabouts. Should maintain their strong early season form. If anything happens to the Brawns, Toyota would be the team to beat.

BMW: (FP1: 16&18, FP2: 17&18) Always slow on Fridays (probably due to different testing schedule. However, this performance is terrible, even by their standards. Will need chaos to score points.

Renault: (FP1: 9&20, FP2: 16&19) Alonso was not running KERS, but did have a new diffusor. That left him 9th and 19th in the two sessions (was the 9th place a so-called glory lap?) Not looking great for the team, but perhaps they are sandbagging. We'll know tomorrow, but I suspect they are in trouble. Nul points, I predict.

Williams: (FP1: 7&19 FP2: 2&7) Rosberg finished just 0.025s away from Button's time, but Williams usually run away with the Friday sessions, so unless they are running more fuel than usual, they've dropped back a little.

Toro Rosso: (FP1: 10&13, FP2: 10&15) Mid table, they did run an adjustable front wing, something Red Bull haven't done, but don't expect them to race with it (5 live's commentary team understood it to be a test run for the senior squad). A race like the 2 most recent might lead to points, a normal one wouldn't.

Red Bull: (FP1: 5&12, FP2: 4&5) Vettel had some problems in the second session, but they don't appear to be too major. Should maintain their place in the top 4, probably as the 3rd fastest car. Racecraft and strategy (and coping with super-softs) will determine whether they end up with podiums, points or nothing.

McLaren: (FP1: 1&4, FP2: 9&13) Aero upgrades appeared to be working in the first session, but if form from the second session (usually better representative of Qualifying form) is repeated, they'll struggle to get into Q3. Better than I expected.

Force India: (FP1: 14&17, FP2: 11&20) A better than usual showing from the team, but this probably reflects the problems of others, more than any improvement by them. Another team who might benefit from chaos.

Ferrari: (FP1: 11&15, FP2: 12&14) Running without KERS (for "reliability" reasons) they are no better, in fact worse than they have been so far. Nul points, most likely.

Updated predictions:
Win: Button (seems to be quicker than Rubens this weekend)
2nd: Barrichello
3rd: Glock
4th: Vettel
5th: Trulli
6th: Rosberg
7th: Hamiton
8th: Webber

That is, I've moved Jenson up, replaced Alonso and Kimi (cars too slow) with Trulli and Webber (not dropping them for "bad luck" any more).

Further updates tomorrow.

China preview

Another Thursday, another set of predictions.

Team-by-team (now in championship order, rather than my view of their performance):
Brawn-Mercedes: Jenson won both of the opening races, Rubens suffered much mishap on his way to 2nd in the championship and the approval at the Appeals Court of their diffuser. All told, Brawn are in good shape for this weekend. The question remains "have the opposition managed to catch up?"
Toyota: Finished 3rd and 4th in Australia, after starting from the pits (and after Lewis' disqualification). Were in good shape before the rain (Trulli) and during the rain (Glock) in Malaysia. I'm sure that they will manage at least a podium, and will probably lead the race on Sunday. Brawn, in my view, are only just ahead of them.
BMW Sauber: Heidfeld used good tactics, more than good speed, to get his eighth second place finish. However, Kubica is now being given a try at KERS, which implies that the team have found a way to lighten the car. This will only help (because they wouldn't use it if they didn't feel it was worthwhile). Rumour has it that their new diffuser will be ready for Spain. In the meantime they should be scrapping for points, if current reliability trends continue, otherwise 10-14th.
Renault: Along with McLaren, they have a new diffuser for this weekend. This should help them make the leap to the front running pack (joining Red Bull and Williams slightly behind Toyota and Brawn). Alonso to be in a podium place at some stage, finish about 5th. Piquet to finish a race without crashing (well, maybe).
Williams-Toyota: Will push as hard as they possibly can this weekend, as they will find their advantage slowly slipping away. Having said that, I feel they would be contending for the win, were it not for the fact that their car took VERY unkindly to the super softs at Melbourne. I doubt they've fixed that, so that they only suffer as much as everyone else. We'll see. Predicition: points if they finish.
Toro Rosso-Ferrari: Umm. Got lucky for their points. Don't have KERS or a new diffuser. Will struggle. 9th out of 10, in my view. At least one, probably both drivers will drop out in Q1.
Red Bull-Renault: Vettel to secure shock pole position. More realistically, they'll both be in the top 4 rows, with one interrupting the Brawn/Toyota hegemony at the top of the grid.
McLaren-Mercedes: New diffuser (see Renault). One of the best drivers (see his performance in a bad car at Melbourne). I'd say, barring disqualification, that the McLaren will drop out in Q2, and will somehow score good points. Credit KERS (I think it is a slight disadvantage in qualifying, big advantage in the race).
Force India-Mercedes: Rumour has it they are further advanced than Ferrari in their diffuser design, but since they haven't got it yet, expect nothing from them this weekend. Only chaos exceeding what we've seen so far this season will help them get any points.
Ferrari: Last in the standings. Major managerial reorganisation. Surely things won't get worse? They've dropped KERS until Spain (due to reliability issues, apparently). Expect Q3, but few, if any points.

Thursday predictions:
Win: Barrichello (his turn to avoid bad luck, methinks)
2nd: Glock (that Toyota is good)
3rd: Button (some misfortune will strike)
4th: Vettel (something to go wrong for Trulli)
5th: Alonso (that new diffuser will help, along with KERS)
6th: Rosberg (all that effort, and still Williams won't win)
7th: Hamilton (fighting through from 14th on the grid)
8th: Raikkonen (benefitting from others' misfortune)

China highlights 2004-8

The BBC provide highlights of their 5 favourite examples of each Grand Prix, in the week preceding the event. This week, due to the 5 year history of the Chinese Grand Prix, that means that they are offering highlights of every F1 race ever held in China.

For 2004 (Barrichello's last win): click here (and what price a repeat podium of Barrichello, Button, Raikkonen- ok, the Ferrari has no chance).
For 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 click the links as appropriate. 2007 won their "vote for your favourite" competition, featuring, as it did, the classic image of Hamilton losing control of a 30mph McLaren on tyres that were beyond completely shot.

My pick? 2004, but only because Rubens won. They were all fairly good, but none were superb. Let's see what the weekend brings.

Difffusers legal

Phew. The FIA have confirmed that the Brawn, Totota and Williams diffusers are legal. This isn't a surprise, but many fans were nervous. After all, the decision making process has never been predictable. They promise more details later. The most convincing argument of the hearings was provided my Renault, who claimed that the FIA had banned them from using something similar - I assume theirs was illegal on some other grounds.

The race is now on to get double diffusers onto the other 7 teams' cars. Rumour has it that BMW and Force India are best placed. That would be fun, and might put BMW in race winning contention, with FI entering the points (and certainly Q2).

Weather update:
Most sources (MSN search) show clouds and around 22C (or slightly below). However, the BBC differs - it predicts heavy rain. Can't we get something in between?

Tyres: The softer options have been chosen for China, as in Melbourne, unlike Malaysia. Bridgestone are confident that the teams now understand the tyres better so we won't see a repeat of the Melbourne chaos. Predict a couple of Q3 competitors going v. light.

Circuit guide/bad joke

ITV-F1 have a video guide to the Shanghai circuit (shaped like a Shang character in the Chinese alphabet, apparently). It involves a blindfolded Nico Rosberg decribing it, whilst tracing (or attempting to trace) the circuit. All well and good but not very interesting. The only reason I mention it is, in case of Nico off-roading, I want to pre-empt anyone making the joke: you're meant to follow the actual track, not the one you drew blindfolded.

Rubens complains about tyres

Auto Motor und Sport quotes Rubens as saying that he asked for the intermediate tyres when the rain came down, but was given wets, and that a couple of laps later he was again refused, on the grounds that "it was about to rain heavily". Another couple of laps later, of course, it did start tipping it down, but had his original suggestion been followed (like Timo Glock) he would probably, nay almost certainly, have been in a position to win the race.

Shame.

Also, if you remember the Ferrari press spokesman claiming that Kimi was ready to head back out if the race restarted, whilst Kimi was busy eating ice cream, dressed in shorts...

(Found on a forum, yes, I sometimes read forums - only when bored at work, of course).

A few other points

My pre-race predictions of fuel stops:

Firstly, I can't be judged on those who brought their stops forward for wet tyres, but for the other drivers, I was closer with my guesses than either James Allen or the BBC pre-race show.

Vettel stopped L13 (2 later than Allen and the BBC predictions, 1 earlier than mine).
Rosberg Glock and Sutil stopped on L15 (as Allen predicted, 3 later than BBC, 2 earlier than mine).
Webber stopped L16 (1 later than Allen said, 4 later than the BBC, 1 earlier than my prediction).
Trulli stopped on L17 exactly as I predicted, and he weighed the same as Rosberg, Glock and Webber, so my assesment is reasonable (Glock surely pitted early to prevent both Toyotas stopping on the same lap).
Raikkonen stopped earlier than I imagined, and put on wets, on a dry track. Apparently Ferrari thought the downpour was starting on lap 18.
Button stopped exactly as I predicted, on lap 19, 3 laps later than James Allen's prediction and 4! laps later than the Beeb expected.
Barrichello stopped the following lap, one earlier than I imagined.

Basically, even with the fuel loads published, any guesses about fuel seem subject to a "give or take a couple of laps" degree of inaccuracy.

Last year's leading drivers [2008 points](2009 points so far):
1. Hamilton [98](1)
2. Massa [97](0)
3. Raikkonen [75](0)
4. Kubica [75](0)
5. Alonso [61](4)
6. Heidfeld [60](4)
7. Kovaleinen [53](0)
8. Vettel [35](0)

This only goes to show how different this year's pecking order is. We should allow for the fact that Vettel and Kubica came close to big scores in Melbourne, and that Malaysia was no normal race, but still Brawn have already exceeded their 2008 total (they managed that after one race!)

Immediate response

Well, track action finished an hour ago, and the race was "ended" half an hour ago, but still, this is my version of an immediate response.

1. Congratulations Timo Glock. He judged his tyre choices perfectly, managing to put on inters, when nobody else did, on a track that clearly (he was quicker by 8-12 seconds than other drivers) suited them. When they wore out (he'd been pushing to take further advantage) all the other drivers had given up on their full wets, and so he switched to full wets (on an increasingly sodden track) just as everyone switched to inters. He therefore saved himself from stopping AGAIN for wets.

2. My prediction for dry then wet more or less came true. Whoever had fuelled for slightly longer than it remained dry benefitted. As it turned out, Heidfeld took best advantage, finishing 2nd.

3. My finishing predictions were better this weekend than last, at first glance. Here's my points score:
Thursday: 6/16 (5 drivers in top 8, Jenson correctly placed)
Friday: 6/16 (5 drivers in top 8, Jenson correctly placed)
Saturday: 7/16 (5 drivers in top 8, Jenson and Jarno correctly placed)

Only Heidfeld, of the top 8, did I not predict at all, whilst I "only" chose 4 drivers who didn't score. Compare this to Trulli and Bourdais surprising me in Melbourne, with 8 drivers chosen who didn't feature. Let's see how those figures improve (or don't) over the rest of the year.

For the record, the result and the championship positions:

Win: Jenson Button
2nd: Nick Heidfeld
3rd: Timo Glock
4th: Jarno Trulli
5th: Rubens Barrichello
6th: Mark Webber
7th: Lewis Hamilton
8th: Nico Rosberg

Drivers' Championship:
1. Button 15 points
2. Barrichello 10
3. Trulli 8.5
4. Glock 8
5. Heidfeld 4
6. Alonso 4
7. Rosberg 3.5
8. Buemi 2
9. Webber 1.5
10. Hamilton 1
11. Bourdais 1
12. Everyone else 0

Constructors' Chamionship:
1. Brawn 25
2. Toyota 16.5 (despite both starting from the pits in Australia)
3. BMW 4
4. Renault 4
5. Williams 3.5
6. Toro Rosso 3
7. Red Bull 1.5
8. McLaren 1
9/10. Ferrari and Force India 0.

Yes, that's right, only Ferrari and Force India are yet to score (last season's best and worst team, excluding Super Aguri).

Early days still, but as it stands, Trulli and Jenson could be the title fight. Interestingly, with Trulli's half point, this season could be even closer than the last two seasons....

Grid and Saturday Prediction

Qualifying was uninterrupted by weather, and featured a notable mistake by Ferrari - they assumed that there were at least 5 cars who wouldn't beat Massa's time, and in fact it was only 4. So Massa will start 16th. Penalties for Barrichello and Vettel also affect the grid, which I inlcude below with predicted first stop laps:

Front row: Jenson Button (19) Jarno Trulli (17-18)
2nd row: Timo Glock (17-18) Nico Rosberg (17)
3rd row Mark Webber (17) Robert Kubica (20)
4th row: Kimi Raikkonen (20) Rubens Barrichello (21)
5th row: Fernando Alonso (26-27) Nick Heidfeld (31)
6th row: Kazuki Nakajima (28) Lewis Hamilton (22)
7th row: Sebastian Vettel (14) Heikki Kovalainen (29-30)
8th row: Sebastien Bourdais (23) Felipe Massa (30)
9th row: Nelson Piquet Jnr (27) Giancarlo Fisichella (27)
Back row: Adrian Sutil (17) Sebastien Buemi (29)

KERS cars in bold, penalised drivers in italics.

Scenario 1: Dry, no forecast rain. Vettel, Sutil, one Toyota and possibly Rosberg or Webber start on softs. Rubens drops further places off the start, to 3 men on 2 following rows with KERS. Heidfeld, Kovaleinen, Massa try one-stopping (start on hard, judge softs based on Vettel, etc and then either 1- or 2-stop). Button favourite, but we'll find out on the day.

Scenario 2: Starts dry, rain forecast: Most teams start on hards, Vettel on softs. Someone will "luck in" on the timing of the rain. Note: if it rains, the drivers are no longer required to run both dry compounds (for obvious reasons). Favourite: still Button, but Vettel, Kimi and Rubens all stand a good chance, if the rain falls conveniently for them.

Scenario 3: Starts wet, but drying. Whoever has the lightest car that will go until the track suits dry tyres will be in the box seat. Ferrari would therefore be well placed.

Scenario 4: Wet, not drying. Whoever copes best, wins. Favourites: Button, Glock, Raikkonen, Barrichello, Vettel, Heidfeld, Hamilton.

I think scenarios 1 and 2 are most likely and therefore predict the following top 8:

Win Jenson Button
2nd Timo Glock
3rd Rubens Barrichello
4th Jarno Trulli
5th Fernando Alonso
6th Nico Rosberg
7th Sebastian Vettel
8th Kimi Raikkonen

We'll find out tomorrow how good these predictions were.

Malaysian Predictions - Friday

Friday practise (in hot, dry conditions, rather than the warm, wet ones expected for Sunday) showed a similar picture to Melbourne.
Purely judged on times, you'd guess it was a Williams/Ferrari race with Red Bull and Brawn just behind. BMW would be fighting to avoid last place (but then BMW are ALWAYS slow on Fridays).
Realistically, I'm only going to adjust my predictions slightly: Rubens got a 5 spot grid penalty, so he'll have a harder job on Sunday.

Predictions:
Win - Jenson Button
2nd - Kimi Raikkonen
3rd - Rubens Barrichello
4th - Nico Rosberg
5th - Mark Webber
6th - Sebastian Vettel
7th - Robert Kubica
8th - Timo Glock

I'm still expecting rain, so will put my mistakes down to incorrectly judging who'll slide off (Trulli, Massa and Nakajima, for instance).
Guess 3 to come after qualifying.

Malaysia - or Melbourne revisited

So the paddock and press arrive in Sepang, and start talking about the race ahead. Well, almost. As per Formula 1 ritual, they in fact are discussing stewarding decisions from the previous race (both Vettel's grid penalty, and the overturning of Trulli's penalty, without appeal and the disqualification of Hamilton, fo rmisleading the stewards).

Firstly, I'll re-reasses my predictions from the last race. By the previous scoring method (one point for each named driver appearing in top 8, 2 points for any correctly placed) I now score:
Thursday: 5/16 (4 drivers, Alonso correctly placed)
Friday: 6/16 (5 drivers, Alonso correctly placed)
Saturday: 3/16 (3 drivers, none correctly placed).

Now, how about some views on this weekend?

Firstly, the weather. Storms and heavy rain are predicted, and some are anticipating a premature red flag, due to poor visibility (either through the rain, or the darkness after rain delays proceedings). This favours weaker teams, as it reduces the significance of their lesser cars. It also favoured experienced drivers (or those who specialise in the wet, I'll name Button, Barrichello, Vettel, Sutil, Heidfeld and Webber as drivers who have taken advantage of poor conditions before). It should also favour those teams who have experience driving this year's car in the rain (all bar Toro Rosso, Force India and crucially Brawn).

Team-by-team:
Brawn:
Good wet-weather drivers, great tactician (Ross) but no wet weather practise. Hopefully, they'll be able to take advantage of Friday practise to get accustomed to the handling of their car in wet conditions. If it is dry, then the race is theirs. If it is wet, it will probably be theirs anyway.

Toyota:
Now second in the championship thanks to their "3rd and 4th" finish in Melbourne. They have some experience of their car in the wet, and Glock did well in such situations in testing. Should be well placed, and might well match their Melbourne form, barring accident or further penalties.

Renault:
Thrid in championship thanks to Fernando. Will suffer greatly here, but storms may provide Fernando with the chance to put in a virtuoso performance. Nothing else will save them from a zero-point weekend.

Williams:
Showed good pace last weekend, and may be able to take better advantage of it, now that they have put a race weekend behind them. Should score points, assuming they finish, and will almost certainly be in the front 3 rows on the grid.

Toro Rosso:
Joint fourth (technically fifth) in the table after their fortunate double-points finish of last weekend, they will be hoping for an equally chaotic race to further their chances of scoring points. I still feel the team is favourite for 9th place in this year's standings.

Ferrari:
Last year they were atrocious in the wet, but Kimi has performed well before. They will have a very tough weekend ahead of them if they want to score more than a few points. Any less, and there will be outrage in the Italian press.

BMW:
It will be interesting to see whether Heidfeld uses KERS again this weekend. It wasn't all that useful for him last weekend, but might prove crucial in chaotic wet situations. Should put one car in the top 6, and probably both in the top 10 in qualifying. They will also expect points for both cars, supposing again that they finish.

McLaren:
Many eyes will be on them as controversy yet again flies around Lewis and the team. They know that this will be a tough weekend on the track, and today's news won't help them to focus.
However, on a wet track, Lewis can amaze crowds, and stands a good chance of ending on the podium or in the wall. If it is dry, neither car will score.

Red Bull:
Very fast last weekend, I expect one of the cars to be light-fuelled to try and start from the front row (on softs if there is no rain). Both drivers are good in the wet, especially Vettel, so this could be their weekend (a win even, if anything happens to Brawn).

Force India:
With the greatest will in the world, rain, chaos and dodgy stewarding decisions are the only chance Force India have of featuring this weekend.

So, now for my Thursday predictions:

Win - Jenson Button
2nd - Rubens Barrichello
3rd - Sebastian Vettel
4th - Robert Kubica
5th - Lewis Hamiton
6th - Timo Glock
7th - Kimi Raikkonen
8th - Mark Webber

This supposes rain, and accidents wiping out some of: Heidfeld, Massa, Trulli and the Williams cars. Let's see if Friday practise will change my views - I'll let you know tomorrow.

If...

I'll probably do other what ifs, but here is the first:
http://www.marca.com/2009/03/31/motor/formula1/1238510906.html
What if Fernando Alonso had signed for Honda, in the autumn of 2008?

1. Honda probably wouldn't have quit. Santander have fairly deep pockets.
2. Rubens would have been forced into retirement (or perhaps would have pushed harder for a drive at Toro Rosso - hardly better)
3. Renault would be in deep, deep trouble. Piquet kept Hamilton honest in GP2 yet struggles mightily to score points with Renault, and realistically, only Barrichello or a rookie could have replaced Alonso.
4. Alonso would be claiming the credit for Honda's great early season form, and would probably be feuding with Button with far more venom than Villeneuve ever did. Though it would have been interesting to see the two matched up in equal equipment.

Podcasts

Not exactly brand new, but they are a very useful thing, to those who use them.

I tend to listen to news based podcasts, such as the NY Times' "Front Page" and "Back Story" or the BBC's "Business Daily". The Guardian's "Guardian Daily" is good for anyone who only wants to listen to one news podcast, that more-or-less mirrors the news priorities of BBC/Channel 4 TV news, or the UK's broadsheet (or former broadsheet) newspapers.

Slate has some very interesting podcasts. I subscribe to their "daily podcast" that includes 6 different areas over the week. My favourite is the political gabfest.

Comedy is also well represented in the land of podcasts. Stephen Fry and David Mitchell each have very succesful podcasts that hardly need promotion, but my favourites are the BBC's "Friday Night Comedy from BBC Radio 4" which includes the News Quiz and the Now Show whenever either is in season, and the Onion's "Onion News Network (Video)" which provides twice-weekly 2-3 minute spoofs of 24-hour news reports. The same videos are available (although not full screen) on their website. A recent example is the story: Prague's Franz Kafka International Named World's Most Alienating Airport

For formula 1, there are fewer (unless you can recommend any) with the BBC providing (under the name Chequered Flag) a race preview and review for each race and Autosport providing occasional (monthly?) chats about the goings on within the sport.

2009 season prospects

This will be my final F1 article of the weekend (they'll recommence on Thursday or Friday, preceding the Malaysian GP next weekend).

I want to take a quick look at each team, to assess how strong they look for the season, based on their strengths and weaknesses in Melbourne.

Brawn GP:
Front row lockout, 1-2 finish. Everything's fine? Well, not quite. Their pit stops were atrocious (costing 5-10 seconds each, above what is normal). Barrichello's anti-stall kicking in on the grid also cost him dearly (well, as it turned out, it didn't cost any points, but it did make his life much harder).
Also, predictions that they'd lap the field were wide of the mark. Jenson was consistently a few seconds ahead of Sebastian Vettel and would have been under great threat from Robert Kubica, had the latter pair not taken each other out towards the end.
This shows that whilst the strongest team on the grid, not everything will go their way this season.

Red Bull:
Strong throughout qualifying with Webber P3 in Q1 and Vettel P3 in both Q2 and Q3. Webber's first corner accident cost him more dearly than anyone else (bar Heikki Kovaleinen) so we should discount his race performance (the only finisher to be lapped). Vettel consistently matched the pace of Jenson Button and would have finished 3rd, if only he'd let Kubica through more easily.
I feel they'll appear on the podium at more than half of this year's races, and probably win one or two races. Webber would dearly love to break his duck (longer than any active driver's other than Heidfeld) and I'll back him to manage it.

BMW:
Kubica didn't follow the same strategy as the Brawns, Williams or Vettel, and so it is hard to make a direct comparison as to potential. However, he was definitely in the mix for a win until the accident, without KERS, so should be considered a threat throughout the season. I'd even tip him as favourite for Sepang.
Heidfeld, in the KERS-equipped BMW suffered more than his teammate inn qualifying (finishing Q2 in 11th place). This might well indicate that the KERS isn't worth the lost ballast distribution, or might indicate nothing more than his inferiority to Kubica. Most likely, is a small mistake that cost a crucial tenth of a second and the critical lap. The field is so close, that such mistakes will be severeely punished, and Heidfeld has never been a strong qualifier, but always a much better racer (his race today was compromised at the first corner, in an incident in which he isn't enitrely without blame - he took a very tight line for someone with 2 cars inside them).
Probably will be fighting Brawn for both championships this season.

Williams:
Rosberg topped all three "meaningless" free practise sessions and set the fastest lap of the race. Strategically, they erred by leaving his final stint to be too long (his middle stint should have been lenthened when it became apparent, early on, how bad the super-softs became after 5 laps). He was also the only driver, other than the Brawns, to appear in the top 8 in every session that counted at all (Q1, Q2, Q3, the race and even fastest lap) so the car is clearly very strong.
Nakajima was overshadowed by his teammate, but, before his accident was running very well with a heavy car. Had he not crashed, he probably would have followed Barrichello closely until the Brazilian's pitstop and possibly got the jump on him throuhg strategy. Presumably he'd have been fuelled for a late splash-and-dash, just like Rubens, so would not have suffered as badly as Rosberg, and might have picked up a podium, given all that happened. However, such specualtions are useful only for passing time. The short version is that he clearly had a similar pace to the leaders, when adjusted for fuel (his car was the heaviest of the frontrunners).
This augurs well for the season, and I believe the team will get plenty of podiums. Their prospects are similar to those of Red Bull.

Toyota:
Qualified 6th and 8th, but started from the pits, due to an "excessively flexible rear wing". Finshed the race 3rd and 5th, demonstrating good tactics, good speed and everything required to be race winners. Trulli's 25 second penalty cost them a podium, but should hide their strength. They are probably only slightly behind Brawn and BMW, and appear justified in their decision to avoid KERS.

Ferrari:
Last year, both Ferraris retired from the Australian GP and yet they won the constructors championship. This year will be harder though. They have a performace deficit to Brawn, but one they can probably catch up once the teams return to Europe. Neither driver excelled today, and were comprehensively outdone by Kubica despite a similar strategy, so they definitely have work to do.
For those reasons, I rank them 6th at the moment, but with every prospect of improving.

McLaren:
Hamilton's 3rd place disguises their clear weakness. In no other session (that counted) did they trouble the top 8 (Q1,2,3, or fastest lap) with either car although Hamilton demonstrated well, the benefits of KERS (although the poor showing of the other KERS cars amply demonstrate the drawbacks).
McLaren are a big team, with massive facilities and the ability to develop greatly during the season, so those points for Hamilton may come in useful at the end of the season. 7th at the moment on performace (by my reckoning) yet a fair bet to end the season in the top 3.

Renault:
The other KERS team also had a poor weekend, masked by a decent result for their world champion (Alonso was promoted to 5th place by Trulli's penalty). Pat Symonds will not be kidding himself that their current 4th place in the constructors' championship is representative. However, this team has always shown itself to be good developers during a season (at least, when Alonso is around) so they too, cannot be discounted from challenging for wins, or at least podiums.
Currently 8th (by my reckoning) but will probably end the season in the top 5. This will, however require a lot of work, and possibly replacing Piquet with an actual racing driver (di Grassi seems to have the heart for it).

Toro Rosso:
One of only two teams to achieve a double points finish (albeit 7th and 8th) but their pace was lacking all weekend, and they will be doing well to reach Q2 at half of the races, and achieve points on more than half a dozen occasions. Buemi impressed today, on his debut, but then again, so did Mark Webber and Markus Winkelhoek. Will spend the season fighting to avoid the back row.

Force India:
Much closer to the field than they were last year, and with the benefit of a little McLaren magic, they may well find themselves in the mix for points several times this season. Sutil finished 9th today, but that will be hard to repeat in less chaotic races. I'd strongly recommend that they mix up their strategies to take advantage of the differences between the tyres this season (and to "do a Piquet" at some stage). Might manage 10-20 points this season, but it will be tough.


Overall:
KERS - didn't show itself to be an advantage this weekend, but it might at other races. We await with baited breath.
Level playing field - does anyone remember the days when cars would be lapped 3 or 4 times in a race, because that will only happen in exxceptional circumstances, this year. This level playing field will force all the big teams to "waste" a set of soft tyres in Q1 far more regularly tahn they would like.
Tyres - the super-softs were a disgrace to the sport this afternoon. Perhaps teams will learn that they are next to useless beyond 5 laps, and adjust their cars and strategies accordingly, but this will certainly add to the unpredictability of races.

Aussie GP - comment

That ending was ridiculous. Much as I was hoping Kubica and Vettel would take each other out, I never expected it to happen. Vettel then trying to bring a reliant Red Bull home on three wheels. The safety car coming out was necessary, but did it really need to return to the pits with 200m to go?
Still, the fairytale came true. The final result, before any stewarding decisions, of course:
Win - Jenson Button
Second - Rubens Barrichello
Third - Jarno Trulli (from the pit lane)
4th - Lewis Hamiton (despite the McLaren and starting last)
5th - Timo Glock (also from pit lane)
6th - Fernando Alonso
7th - Nico Rosberg (who suffered greatly from putting on the super-soft tyre too early)
8th - Sebastien Buemi (on his debut!)

Assesment of predicitons (1pt for being in top 8 as predicted, 2 points for being where predicted)
Thursday: 6 of possible 16 (5 drivers, Buemi correctly placed)
Friday: 6 of 16 (6 drivers, none correctly placed)
Saturday: 4 of 16 (3 drivers, Alonso correctly placed)

Shows how a little information is a dangerous thing.
--
EDIT: Due to Trulli's penalty, my predictions now score as below.
Thursday: 6/16 (5 drivers, Alonso correctly placed)
Friday: 7/16 (6 drivers, Alonso correctly placed)
Saturday: 3/16 (3 drivers, none correctly placed).
Still supports the point "a little information..."