Grid and Saturday Prediction

Qualifying was uninterrupted by weather, and featured a notable mistake by Ferrari - they assumed that there were at least 5 cars who wouldn't beat Massa's time, and in fact it was only 4. So Massa will start 16th. Penalties for Barrichello and Vettel also affect the grid, which I inlcude below with predicted first stop laps:

Front row: Jenson Button (19) Jarno Trulli (17-18)
2nd row: Timo Glock (17-18) Nico Rosberg (17)
3rd row Mark Webber (17) Robert Kubica (20)
4th row: Kimi Raikkonen (20) Rubens Barrichello (21)
5th row: Fernando Alonso (26-27) Nick Heidfeld (31)
6th row: Kazuki Nakajima (28) Lewis Hamilton (22)
7th row: Sebastian Vettel (14) Heikki Kovalainen (29-30)
8th row: Sebastien Bourdais (23) Felipe Massa (30)
9th row: Nelson Piquet Jnr (27) Giancarlo Fisichella (27)
Back row: Adrian Sutil (17) Sebastien Buemi (29)

KERS cars in bold, penalised drivers in italics.

Scenario 1: Dry, no forecast rain. Vettel, Sutil, one Toyota and possibly Rosberg or Webber start on softs. Rubens drops further places off the start, to 3 men on 2 following rows with KERS. Heidfeld, Kovaleinen, Massa try one-stopping (start on hard, judge softs based on Vettel, etc and then either 1- or 2-stop). Button favourite, but we'll find out on the day.

Scenario 2: Starts dry, rain forecast: Most teams start on hards, Vettel on softs. Someone will "luck in" on the timing of the rain. Note: if it rains, the drivers are no longer required to run both dry compounds (for obvious reasons). Favourite: still Button, but Vettel, Kimi and Rubens all stand a good chance, if the rain falls conveniently for them.

Scenario 3: Starts wet, but drying. Whoever has the lightest car that will go until the track suits dry tyres will be in the box seat. Ferrari would therefore be well placed.

Scenario 4: Wet, not drying. Whoever copes best, wins. Favourites: Button, Glock, Raikkonen, Barrichello, Vettel, Heidfeld, Hamilton.

I think scenarios 1 and 2 are most likely and therefore predict the following top 8:

Win Jenson Button
2nd Timo Glock
3rd Rubens Barrichello
4th Jarno Trulli
5th Fernando Alonso
6th Nico Rosberg
7th Sebastian Vettel
8th Kimi Raikkonen

We'll find out tomorrow how good these predictions were.

The markets this week

G20 summit and the usual turbulence left most markets significantly higher. Here's my weekly update on the performance (reminder: this is to better follow trends, rahter than get swamped by one day's news).

FTSE: up 130.82 points or 3.36%

DOW: up 241.41 points or 3.10%

£: up 5.22 US cents or 3.65%

£: up 2.35 Euro cents or 2.16%

Oil: up $1.87, down £0.01, up €0.83

Gold: down $21, down £35.49, down €24.02

Below I'll include a graph of the value of oil and gold in £ over the past 4 months (18 weekends worth of data) with the gold price divided by 20, so both can be displayed on the same graph.

These lines are a little different from those for the dollar (which are widely published so won't be repeated here). The oil price has been fairly flat in the past fortnight, since movements in its dollar price have matched those in the $/£ exchange rate. The value for gold is, in fact, more volatile in £ than in $, probably because confidence in the world economy causes the gold price to rise, and the value of sterling to fall, emphasising shifts in the £ price of gold. In the past fortnight the price has tumbled, far faster than it appears to have in dollar terms.

Malaysian Predictions - Friday

Friday practise (in hot, dry conditions, rather than the warm, wet ones expected for Sunday) showed a similar picture to Melbourne.
Purely judged on times, you'd guess it was a Williams/Ferrari race with Red Bull and Brawn just behind. BMW would be fighting to avoid last place (but then BMW are ALWAYS slow on Fridays).
Realistically, I'm only going to adjust my predictions slightly: Rubens got a 5 spot grid penalty, so he'll have a harder job on Sunday.

Predictions:
Win - Jenson Button
2nd - Kimi Raikkonen
3rd - Rubens Barrichello
4th - Nico Rosberg
5th - Mark Webber
6th - Sebastian Vettel
7th - Robert Kubica
8th - Timo Glock

I'm still expecting rain, so will put my mistakes down to incorrectly judging who'll slide off (Trulli, Massa and Nakajima, for instance).
Guess 3 to come after qualifying.

Malaysia - or Melbourne revisited

So the paddock and press arrive in Sepang, and start talking about the race ahead. Well, almost. As per Formula 1 ritual, they in fact are discussing stewarding decisions from the previous race (both Vettel's grid penalty, and the overturning of Trulli's penalty, without appeal and the disqualification of Hamilton, fo rmisleading the stewards).

Firstly, I'll re-reasses my predictions from the last race. By the previous scoring method (one point for each named driver appearing in top 8, 2 points for any correctly placed) I now score:
Thursday: 5/16 (4 drivers, Alonso correctly placed)
Friday: 6/16 (5 drivers, Alonso correctly placed)
Saturday: 3/16 (3 drivers, none correctly placed).

Now, how about some views on this weekend?

Firstly, the weather. Storms and heavy rain are predicted, and some are anticipating a premature red flag, due to poor visibility (either through the rain, or the darkness after rain delays proceedings). This favours weaker teams, as it reduces the significance of their lesser cars. It also favoured experienced drivers (or those who specialise in the wet, I'll name Button, Barrichello, Vettel, Sutil, Heidfeld and Webber as drivers who have taken advantage of poor conditions before). It should also favour those teams who have experience driving this year's car in the rain (all bar Toro Rosso, Force India and crucially Brawn).

Team-by-team:
Brawn:
Good wet-weather drivers, great tactician (Ross) but no wet weather practise. Hopefully, they'll be able to take advantage of Friday practise to get accustomed to the handling of their car in wet conditions. If it is dry, then the race is theirs. If it is wet, it will probably be theirs anyway.

Toyota:
Now second in the championship thanks to their "3rd and 4th" finish in Melbourne. They have some experience of their car in the wet, and Glock did well in such situations in testing. Should be well placed, and might well match their Melbourne form, barring accident or further penalties.

Renault:
Thrid in championship thanks to Fernando. Will suffer greatly here, but storms may provide Fernando with the chance to put in a virtuoso performance. Nothing else will save them from a zero-point weekend.

Williams:
Showed good pace last weekend, and may be able to take better advantage of it, now that they have put a race weekend behind them. Should score points, assuming they finish, and will almost certainly be in the front 3 rows on the grid.

Toro Rosso:
Joint fourth (technically fifth) in the table after their fortunate double-points finish of last weekend, they will be hoping for an equally chaotic race to further their chances of scoring points. I still feel the team is favourite for 9th place in this year's standings.

Ferrari:
Last year they were atrocious in the wet, but Kimi has performed well before. They will have a very tough weekend ahead of them if they want to score more than a few points. Any less, and there will be outrage in the Italian press.

BMW:
It will be interesting to see whether Heidfeld uses KERS again this weekend. It wasn't all that useful for him last weekend, but might prove crucial in chaotic wet situations. Should put one car in the top 6, and probably both in the top 10 in qualifying. They will also expect points for both cars, supposing again that they finish.

McLaren:
Many eyes will be on them as controversy yet again flies around Lewis and the team. They know that this will be a tough weekend on the track, and today's news won't help them to focus.
However, on a wet track, Lewis can amaze crowds, and stands a good chance of ending on the podium or in the wall. If it is dry, neither car will score.

Red Bull:
Very fast last weekend, I expect one of the cars to be light-fuelled to try and start from the front row (on softs if there is no rain). Both drivers are good in the wet, especially Vettel, so this could be their weekend (a win even, if anything happens to Brawn).

Force India:
With the greatest will in the world, rain, chaos and dodgy stewarding decisions are the only chance Force India have of featuring this weekend.

So, now for my Thursday predictions:

Win - Jenson Button
2nd - Rubens Barrichello
3rd - Sebastian Vettel
4th - Robert Kubica
5th - Lewis Hamiton
6th - Timo Glock
7th - Kimi Raikkonen
8th - Mark Webber

This supposes rain, and accidents wiping out some of: Heidfeld, Massa, Trulli and the Williams cars. Let's see if Friday practise will change my views - I'll let you know tomorrow.