Sunday, 22 March 2009


This was originally written as a "Note" on Facebook, but I'll republish it here.

Originally written: 06 January 2009 at 22:02 10 things over which I have no significant control, that I believe will happen in 2009.
Sport: 1-Ernests Gulbis to reach year end ATP top 10 (current rank: 53)
2-Lance Armstrong's return to fail (he will not win any of the 3 grand tours, to be specific)
3-16 cars to compete in Abu Dhabi GP 2009 (1st November).

Economy: 4-Bank of England base rate to drop as low as 0.5% (or lower) at some point.
5-£/€ exchange rate to return to €1.20 per £1 (this relies on ECB rates also dropping).
6-DFS to go into administration (an end to those adverts, we can only hope)

Politics: 7-Labour to achieve poll lead (briefly, but recorded by at least 2 different polling organisations)
8-All 3 party leaders (Brown, Cameron, Clegg) to remain in power until 31 December, at least.
9-Italian government to fall.

Other: 10-Weirdo to win Big Brother (okay, so I'm cheating a little on this one...)

If more than 7 are right, I've done well (fewer than 3, badly) methinks....Any alternative predictions?

22/03: Progress report:
1 - Current rank 43. Might make top 20, but top 10 looks unlikely.
2 - He's doing well so far, but it is still quite an ask for him to win a Grand Tour.
3 - Honda were resucitated as Brawn GP, FIA has brought in rules to further cut costs. This won't happen*.
4 - Has happened (1/10)
5 - Currently around 1.06, was as high as 1.148 in early February. Won't rule it out, yet.
6 - Still exists, sadly. Their adverts still grate.
7 - Umm, looks pretty unlikely.
8 - So far, so good. There has been some jockeying for Brown's job, but he still looks fairly secure.
9 - Not happened yet, more's the pity.
10 - I later clarified that this meant the non-Celeb version, which hasn't happened yet.

So, after nearly a quarter of the year, 1 has happened, none are IMPOSSIBLE but 2 look very unlikely and another couple look unlikely. Still think I can beat 3.

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